The reference diet, and what it projects

The EAT-Lancet Commission, whose 2025 report Walter Willett co-chaired, is the most-cited attempt to turn all of this into a single dietary pattern. It is worth having here because it is the one place in this entry where somebody adds the evidence up and states a diet — and because what it produces is a model, which is a different kind of claim from everything above.

The 2025 EAT-Lancet Commission's reference diet sets plant foods in grams a day with ranges: 300 grams of vegetables (200 to 600), 200 grams of fruit (100 to 300), 210 grams of whole grains, 50 grams of tree nuts and peanuts (0 to 75), 75 grams of legumes (0 to 150) and 50 grams of starchy roots and tubers (0 to 100). [1] [1] [1] [1] [1] [1]

It sets animal-sourced foods at 250 grams of dairy a day (0 to 500), 30 grams of chicken or other poultry (0 to 60), 15 grams of beef, pork or lamb (0 to 30), 30 grams of fish and shellfish (0 to 100) and 15 grams of eggs (0 to 25). [1] [1] [1] [1] [1]

It sets fats, sugar and salt at 40 grams of unsaturated plant oils a day (20 to 80), 30 grams of added or free sugar (0 to 30), 6 grams of palm or coconut oil (0 to 8), 5 grams of lard, tallow or butter (0 to 10) and sodium below 2000 milligrams. [1] [1] [1] [1] [1]

Adding that pattern up produces the headline number, and it is a projection rather than an observation.

The Commission states that adopting the Planetary Health Diet could prevent an estimated 15 million avoidable deaths a year, about 27% of global mortality, and reduce the risks of heart disease, stroke, type 2 diabetes and certain cancers. [1]

The Commission is explicit about what the diet itself is based on, which is worth noting because the report is usually quoted for its environmental arithmetic.

The Commission states that the Planetary Health Diet is based entirely on the direct effects of different diets on human health, and not on environmental criteria. [1]

It also carries, in its own summary, the caveat that this entry's protein section arrives at from a different direction.

The Commission's own summary carries a caveat for people who choose vegan or vegetarian diets: children and women of reproductive age should consider bioavailability and include fortified foods or supplements where appropriate, and where child undernutrition is present, modest increases in animal-source foods can improve outcomes. [1] [1] [1] [1] [1] [1] [1] [1]

The Commission describes the diet as rich in plants, with only moderate or small amounts of fish, dairy and meat recommended, and says it is designed to be adapted to different populations and cultural contexts. [2]

One more claim from the report, because it speaks directly to the objection that eating this way is a luxury.

The Commission reports that a healthy diet should cost less than 52% of average income, that 2.8 billion people currently fall below that threshold, and that evidence shows a healthy diet is already more affordable than the standard Western diet. [1] [1]

The reference diet is the best available synthesis and it is still a model. The 15 million deaths a year are what the model predicts if everyone ate this way, not something anyone has observed, and the report itself says the diet should be adapted rather than applied. The full report sits behind a publisher's paywall, so the sentences above quote the Commission's own summary and the entry says so in its limits.

What this section does not show

It is a model, not a measurement

The 15 million avoided deaths a year is what the Commission's model projects if everyone ate this way. Nobody has observed it, and the figure is not a count of anything.

The report itself was not read

The full 2025 Commission report carries no abstract and sits behind the publisher's paywall, so every sentence here quotes the Commission's own summary report rather than the report.

The diet is meant to be adapted

The Commission describes it as a pattern for different populations and cultural contexts rather than as a prescription, and its own summary carries a bioavailability caveat for children and women of reproductive age.

No product claim

Nothing in this section is about any food in our directory, any brand, or any portion as sold, and no source here measured one.

All twelve elements

The entry's full limits block covers the dates, the study designs, who was and was not studied, the comparators, the adjustment sets, the uncertainty, the counter-signals and what we did not check. Read it on the entry's first page.

This page is general information about published research. It is not medical advice, and it is not a substitute for advice from a qualified health professional. No clinician-patient relationship exists, and we do not know your diet, your medications, your test results, your medical conditions or your history. Talk to a health professional before changing your diet if you are pregnant or breastfeeding, feeding an infant or child, over 65, taking medication, living with a medical condition, or if you have been diagnosed with a nutrient deficiency or have a history of disordered eating. The evidence described is about groups and diets, not about you, and not about any product listed on this site. If you are unwell, contact a health professional; in an emergency, call 911. No clinician reviewed this entry. It is a compilation of published sources by this site.

Sources for this section

Every numbered sentence above was checked against the source with that number on the date shown. The number links to the entry in this list, and the entry's first page lists every source it cites.

1. EAT-Lancet Commission Summary Report 2025: the healthy, sustainable and just food systems report in clear language. EAT-Lancet Commission (EAT Forum). commission report. Open the source ↗
   Checked 19 September 2026. Backs 7 sentences in this section.
2. The Planetary Health Diet. EAT-Lancet Commission (EAT Forum). commission page. Open the source ↗
   Checked 19 September 2026. Backs 1 sentence in this section.